DAX – False Break-Out – Bullish Correction before the Deep Bearish Impulse

DAX appeared on the Radar again after a while, unfolding what appears to be a “false break-out” and a “bear trap”.

Let’s make a recap on DAX, shall we?

• 12th May 2017 was when I called the top and the drop from 12950.00 Levels towards 12000.00 with the “GER30-DAX – SELL Set-Ups – Stock Exchange Crash” article.
  I was also able to look into the future and project other Levels, according to the Cycle, just click play and see. I know, nice right?
• 18th August 2017 is when I called the bottom at 12000.00 towards higher Levels, with the “DAX-GER30 – Bullish Retracement – Minor C” article.
• 26th July was a legendary day. I posted a double view, buy & sell, with the “DAX30 – Stock Exchange Crash – Full Cycle” article.
  Called the Bull from 12000.00 all the way towards 13300.00 Levels, where I also mentioned that it will be watch and that it could CRASH hard. Guess what? It did!

But how did it crash like that from 13400.00 Levels all the way to 12000.00?
Remember the weekly updates for our Members? Been calling for the “bear claw” 3 weeks ahead of it!
Most of our important Members got this view in Private.

Jan 8th:

Jan 15th:

Jan 22nd:
Just 1 day before the Flash Crash on DAX!

Am I bragging? You might say yes, you might say no, I am saying the truth and backing things up with actual proofs.
Showing off a bit is not always bad and I hope you get the picture here, it’s for the “trolls”.

Returning to the Analysis:

Now we are back to basics, with DAX “flirting” again with 12000.00 Levels and showing a possible Double Bottom and a Fake Break-out.

The Corrective Structure unfolded with a 5 Swings Sequence in Intermediate (A) (turquoise) which indicates that the larger degree looks towards more downside, possibly towards 11600.00 or 11500.00 Levels.

I know what you’re gonna ask: “Is it going now?”
There are chances for it not to go in a straight line there, although it would be destined to go there according to the current Wave Count.

After Intermediate (A) (turquoise) hit 12000.00 the Correction started, which was expected. The issue is that it only retraced on the up-side towards the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracements of Intermediate (A) (turquoise).
I don’t like that and I’m gonna tell you why in the lines below.

The Corrective Pattern shows a Combination between a Leading diagonal in Minute a (blue) and an Ending Diagonal in Minute c (blue).
Time wise, Intermediate (B) (turquoise) does not really fit into what we (elliotticians) call “the right look”, because it did not unfold in a larger amount of time so that it would fit the requirements for an Intermediate Degree.

I think that we could possibly see a Complex Pattern, a Combination in Intermediate (B) (turquoise), making the 38.2% Retracements the 1st leg: Minor W (purple).
This would explain the way the current Bearish Swing is looking: overlapping waves with Corrective features. I am beginning to think we could be facing a “false break-out”, so I would be looking for a Bullish Swing above 12600.00, so that DAX could satisfy a fellow Trader with at least 50% Retracement. Give the dog a bone, c’mon… 🙂

My view right now is a Double Bottom and a False Break-Out as a possible scenario.
Calling for the rise back to 12600.00 is kind of bold, but to be honest it’s worth the risk as only a breach of 11800.00 could invalidate the Bullish Swing and if that happens, then it’s doomed: 11500.00 would be next.

This scenario contains more risk than usual, please be aware!

DAX Daily Chart (picture):

DAX Daily Interactive Chart:

DAX 2h Chart (picture):

DAX 2h Interactive Chart:

DAX – BUY & SELL Orders:

• BUY Position
  Entry @ 11900.00 (or Market if Aggressive)
  SL @ 11750.00
  Targets: 12200.00 / 12350.00 / 12500.00 / 12650.00
• SELL Positions:
  Moderate Entry @ 12650.00 with SL @ 12850.00
  Conservative Entry @ 12800.00 with SL @ 13050.00
  Targets: 12500.00 / 12350.00 / 12200.00 / 12000.00 / 11900.00 / 11600.00 / 11500.00

Many pips ahead!