USD/CAD-Dollar/Loonie – Bearish Break-Out – Intermediate (C)

Technical Standpoint & Possible Direction:

On the Daily Chart, USD/CAD-Dollar/Loonie pretty much seems like it has been trading overall within a Complex Corrective Structure, labelled as Cycle Wave IV (green).
The Complex Corrective Structure started unfolding in Jan 2016, with its first leg labelled as Intermediate (A) (red).
It took Intermediate (A) (red) about 5 months to complete its Bearish Cycle and according to the Elliott Wave time-frame targets, this would make a Wave Trader believe that Intermediate Wave (C) (red) would unfold with a similar time-frame.

Corrective Structure and Wave Labeling:

Since May 2016, for as long as 1 year, USD/CAD-Dollar/Loonie has been trading within a Complex WXY Double Three Structure (pink) relevant for Intermediate (B) (red).
Minor Waves WXY (pink) unfolded with Multiple Corrective Structures, with Running and Expanded Flats in Minor W (pink) and an Expanding Flat in Minor X (pink).
Minor Y (pink) unfolded as a Zig-Zag towards the up-side, showing a 100% Fibonacci Extension of Minutes A & B (blue), reversing aggressively on the Bearish side afterwards.

Speculative Projection 1:

According to the current Wave Count, Intermediate (B) (red) should have ended the entire Corrective Structure, with Minor Y (pink) and its last leg, Minute C (blue).

Fibonacci Measurements: 

Intermediate (B) (red) tested the 50% Fibonacci Retracements of Intermediate (A) (red) and failed to Breach through with Minor W (pink) retracing and leaving room for Minor X (pink) to unfold its Corrective Structure.
Intermediate (B) (red) also tested the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracements of Intermediate (A) (red) with its latest Bullish Swing in its Minute C (blue) sub-wave.
Minute C (blue) completed its Bullish Swings at the 1.38000 Levels, which also represent 100% Fibonacci Extensions of Minutes A&B (blue).

Speculative Projection 2:

Due to current analysis, it is very possible that the Corrective Structure for Intermediate (B) (red) might have finalized and that a Bearish Cycle could commence, triggering the Bearish Intermediate (C) (red).

Bearish View and Analysis:

The current Wave Count implies that USD/CAD-Dollar/Loonie could have already started Intermediate (C) (red) with the first Bearish Impulse breaching through the 1^st Support Trend-Line (pink) and attempting to test the Main Trend-Line (black), which needs to be closely watched.
A Correction towards the up-side could take place at or around the 1.31500 Levels, as the projected 100% Fibonacci Extensions from Minuettes (iii) & (iv) (black) are pointing towards the Main Trend-Line.
If the Correction would reflect a Flag Formation, then it would be quite a good sign for Bears to consider the 1.34000 or 1.35000 Levels.

Speculative Projection 3:

Fibonacci Extensions of Intermediates (A) & (B) (red) point towards further weakness for USD/CAD-Dollar/Loonie, with Intermediate (C) (red) possibly running its Bearish Cycle all the way down to 1.16000 Levels.

USD/CAD-Dollar/Loonie – SELL Position:

SELL Entry Levels – 1.34000 & 1.35000
SL – 1.38000
Targets – 1.25000 & 1.16000

* Safety Measures:
– When in the green, the SL could be moved to break-even or in profit.
– If Conservative, one would wait for a Correction and signs of a Flag Formation before another review.

Many pips ahead!