XAU/USD-GOLD – Medium-Long Term Analysis:
XAU/USD-GOLD starter an Up-Trend in Dec 2015 with Cycle Wave A (pink) which lasted until Jul 2016.
Corrective Cycle B (pink) unfolded with a Complex WXY (red) Structure and lasted until Dec 2016.
Cycle Wave C (pink) started unfolding in Dec 2016 and according to the Time Cycles in Elliott Wave Analysis, it would take it the same time as Cycle Wave A (pink) to complete.
Within Cycle Wave C (pink), Intermediate (A) (light blue) unfolded with a 5 Waves Sequence which confirms that Intermediate (C) (light blue) will most likely unfold with a 5 Waves Sequence as well.
It took 3 Months for Intermediate (A) (light blue) to unfold and complete which tells us that Intermediate (C) (light blue) will most likely unfold within the same Time Frame.
Fundamentally speaking, Geo-Political events such as French Election, Post Brexit factors, Tensions at Countries Borders would trigger Intermediate (C) (light blue).
Technically, Correlations with the Mining Sectors are confirming our view due to GDX about to finalize its Corrective Zig-Zag Structure.
Intermediate (B) (light blue) Analysis:
XAU/USD-GOLD is unfolding the Corrective Structure in Intermediate (B) (light blue) with a Running Flat due to the fact that Minor B (red) surpassed the start of Minor A (red).
The Running Flat is our preferred scenario due to the fact that we see significant Support on the Red Trend-Line from Minor 4 (green) towards Minor A (red), at or around 1220.00 Levels.
We also see a Confirmation of the Running Flat Scenario due to the Hidden (Reversed) Bullish Divergence joining on the Volumes Bars.
In an Expanded Flat Scenario, anything below the end of Minor A (red) (1193.00 Levels) would confirm it and could have room to unfold towards 1200.00 Levels, the 161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors A & B (red).
We do not strongly believe this would be the case, although we are not excluding this Lower Probability Scenario, which would be considered as the Highest Probability Long Entry.
XAU/USD-GOLD is indeed trading within the Range of the Trend-Lines Triangle Pattern (black dotted lines) and the upper Trend-Line is acting as a Strong Resistance.
We do see eventually Intermediate (C) (light blue) Breaching the upper Trend-Line and then gaining Support on it in order to unfold its Cycle.
Lower Triangle Trend-Line would be treated with seriousness in case of Price Action reaching it, although we do not believe strongly that we would see such Scenario.
XAU/USD-GOLD – Medium-Long Term – BUY
Positions and Limit Orders:
Aggressive Entry – 1220.00
SL – 1180.00
Moderate Entry – 1200.00
SL – 1160.00
Conservative Entry – 1180.00
SL – 1140.00
TP1 – 1325.00
TP2 – 1450.00
TP3 – 1620.00
* Safety Measures:
– When in the green, move SL to break-even or in profit.
– If Bearish Breach of the Red Trend-Line and If Conservative: wait for Flag Formation .
Many Pips Ahead!